Forecast of LPG, CNG, and LNG Gas Prices for the Last Six Months of 2026

After a volatile first half of 2026 — with LPG CP prices surging from $522.5/tonne in January to $775/tonne in April before cooling back to $775/tonne in May — the industrial gas market faces significant uncertainties for the second half of the year. This article summarizes key factors and provides an assessment of LPG, CNG, and LNG price trends from June to December 2026.

Looking back at the first half of 2026: A volatile gas market

The gas market in the first half of 2026 witnessed unprecedented volatility. According to data from Saudi Aramco, LPG CP prices evolved as follows:

The $232.5/ton increase in April was the largest in many years, stemming from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which abruptly disrupted supply from the Middle East – which accounts for approximately 30% of global seaborne LPG exports.

4 Factors Determining Gas Prices in the Second Half of 2026

1. Geopolitical Situation in the Middle East

This is the most unpredictable variable and has the greatest impact. The Gulf region currently supplies the majority of Vietnam's imported LPG. Any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or the production area could push CP prices up sharply in the short term, similar to the April 2026 shock.

Expectation: If the geopolitical situation stabilizes, supply pressure will ease.

2. OPEC+ Production Policy

OPEC+ continued to maintain its production cut discipline in the first half of the year. If this alliance eases quotas in Q3 2026 to stabilize the market, global LPG supply could improve and push prices down.

The possibility of OPEC+ adjusting its policy in Q3 is real, creating an opportunity for CP prices to cool down to the 650–700 USD/ton range in July–August. However, this group can flexibly cut, maintain, or increase production at any time.

3. Seasonal Demand – A Favorable Factor for Businesses

June–August is the period when LPG demand in temperate countries (Japan, South Korea, Europe) is low due to the summer cycle. This usually causes CP prices to fall slightly or remain stable during this time.

However, from September onwards, when North Asian and European countries begin stockpiling gas for the winter, demand will increase sharply again, putting upward pressure on prices.

4. Global LNG Market Oversupplied from 2026

A notable positive point: the global LNG market is projected to enter a prolonged oversupply phase starting in 2026 as several large-scale LNG export projects in the US and Qatar come online. For Vietnam, this means a more abundant supply of imported LNG and prices tend to be more competitive in the long term.

Assessment: Domestic LNG prices may be more stable than LPG prices in the second half of 2026; this is a time when plants with high demand should consider reassessing their fuel mix.

Price Trend Forecast by Period

June–August 2026: Possible slight cooling down

September–October 2026: Seasonal rebound

November–December 2026: High volatility – difficult to predict accurately

Note for Manufacturing Businesses

Given the above market picture, factories using industrial gas should consider:

Signing long-term contracts in June–August when prices are cooling down, instead of buying monthly with high volatility risk.

Considering fuel switching or combining: In the context of volatile LPG, many factories are considering combining LPG + CNG or switching to LNG to optimize costs and reduce dependence on a single fuel.

Monitoring monthly CP prices: Saudi Aramco CP prices are published at the end of each month and apply from the beginning of the following month. Early access to this information allows businesses time to adjust their budget plans accordingly.

See the continuously updated CP price list here.

Conclusion

The second half of 2026 is likely to remain a period of high gas price volatility, with a slight downward window in June–August before a seasonal rebound from September. The geopolitical factors in the Middle East remain the most unpredictable risk.

Businesses need to be proactive in their gas purchasing strategy—don't wait until prices rise to find solutions.

DATA ENERGY COMPANY LIMITED

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